Tango-Tiger

The car industry survived the pandemic. Here's what the future holds



"The industry and consumers have been resilient."

Bustling factories shut down, workers idled at home, glistening new vehicles sitting parked in vacant lots.

Now it's business as usual.

"In April we were anticipating a complete meltdown in the car business," Rory Carroll, editor-in-chief of Jalopnik, told ABC News. "That really hasn't been the case. I am very surprised at the demand for cars."

Automakers are up and running again, churning out the sport utility vehicles, trucks and sports cars that Americans are feverishly demanding. Industry insiders were expecting the worst when the coronavirus pandemic disrupted vehicle production and overseas shipments.

Analysts like Jeff Schuster, president of LMC Automotive's Americas operations and global vehicle forecasts division, are forecasting U.S. vehicle sales of 14.5 million units in 2020 versus 17 million the year before, a decline of 15%. But the damage could have been significantly worse.

"The industry and consumers have been resilient," Schuster told ABC News. "Society adapted to the pandemic much faster than expected. For the most part the industry is running at full speed since the shutdowns."

The unexpected recovery in sales was among the biggest automotive stories this year. Automakers in the spring were reporting monthly declines of 40%, prompting speculation about which would survive -- or succumb -- to the pandemic. Then the tides shifted. Consumers snapped up available inventory and spent their cash not on exotic vacations but on that ride they'd put off for months, or years.

"The stock market made some consumers more wealthy and this summer was the perfect time to get a new vehicle," Tyson Jominy, vice president of data and analytics at J.D. Power, told ABC News. "We still have a lot of pent-up demand that we need to work through."

What's to come in 2021? There are a few trends worth watching.

Bigger is better

The fervor for large trucks and full-size SUVs will likely accelerate in the coming months as consumers grapple with a post-pandemic world.

"A truck makes people feel more secure -- they're tough, big and can go off-road," Karl Brauer, executive analyst at iSeeCars.com, told ABC News.

Even premium trucks in the $50,000 to $80,000 range are selling briskly, Brauer pointed out.

Carroll expects more Americans to embrace off-road adventuring, meaning big sales for the Ford Bronco, Jeep Wrangler, Land Rover Defender and other 4X4s.

"There were some people who got the 'COVID crazies' and dreamed about outdoor recreation," he said. "The Bronco is the right product at the right time. People gravitate to cars that can be an escape pod in a time of uncertainty."

Trucks and SUVs may be breaking records but Jominy has noticed more winners this year: high-ticket sports cars and opulent British marques. The "premium sports car" and "super premium" segments are up 9% and 10% respectively, according to Jominy's data. Enthusiasts are clamoring for Porsche's enviable 911 sports car and the revamped mid-engine Corvette, he said. The heavenly new Continental GT and Rolls-Royce's lavish Cullinan ute are behind the uptick in sales at these two stalwarts, which are on track to post gains of 60% and 20%.

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